2020 was without a shadow of a doubt one of the most challenging years in the history of the European Union (‘EU’), with the COVID-19 pandemic relegating even the interminable Brexit process to secondary importance. Events and traditions that had not been interrupted since the Second World War ground to a halt, with no exception made for elections. As 2021 dawned, the prospect of a vaccinated Europe and ‘COVID normal’ have returned election politics to Europe’s centre stage. The year promises, and has already delivered, some hugely consequential votes.
Elections to Date: Uncertainty Abounds
The election year began in Portugal, with the contest between incumbent Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and his challengers for the presidency. As a largely ceremonial position with only limited powers, presidential contests are less fiercely contested than those for the Assembleia da República (Assembly of the Republic). Overwhelming opinion polling in favour of President de Sousa in the leadup to the January 24 vote made it difficult to split off the lowest voter turnout since 1980 from Portugal’s evolving pandemic situation.[i] In any case, de Sousa was returned easily with 61% of the vote.[ii]
More consequentially, Valentine’s Day saw Catalunya’s second election since 2017’s unsuccessful declaration of independence and the subsequent dismissal of Carlos Puigdemont. With Spain’s highest court having ruled him ineligible to run,[iii] the successor to his Junts per Catalunya party could only secure 32 seats in the 135-seat Parlament (unicameral legislature), alongside the pro-independence ERC (33 seats) and anti-independence Socialist Party (also 33 seats).[iv] For the first time at the Catalan level, far-right contingent Vox passed the 3% electoral threshold, securing 11 seats.[v] With no party holding a discernible majority, talks over a permanent Catalan president continue. Much as in Portugal, Catalunya experienced its lowest ever voter turnout, at just over 50%.[vi] With no resolution of the region’s constitutional status forthcoming, relations between Madrid and the wantaway province are likely to remain stretched through to the next general election in 2023.
Moving north, general elections for the Netherlands’ Tweede Kamer (House of Representatives) took place between March 15 and 17, being spread across the weekend to accommodate COVID-19 protocols. After losses for the parties of both Prime Minister Mark Rutte and populist Geert Wilders in the 2019 Eerste Kamer (Senate) elections,[vii] and a series of scandals and resignations in the third Rutte cabinet,[viii] the vote was watched with great interest. Rutte’s VVD gained one seat, bringing their total to 34 and necessitating coalition negotiations.[ix] These too have been beset by controversy, however. Efforts to sideline prominent Rutte critic Pieter Omtzigt in a fourth Rutte cabinet were leaked to the press, prompting an overwhelming censure motion in the Tweede Kamer.[x] Commentators are divided over whether a viable coalition can be negotiated.[xi]
Most recently, Bulgaria went to the polls on April 4 for elections to the Narodno sabranie (National Assembly). All 240 seats in the unicameral legislature were contested, with major opposition parties ITN and Democratic Bulgaria ruling out cooperation with incumbent Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and his GERB party.[xii] Bulgarians delivered a hammer blow to Borisov’s already tenuous hold on governance with a significant swing to new parties, slashing 20 of GERB’s seats along with another 37 from their rival socialists.[xiii] Despite expectations of low voter turnout, electoral participation was not measurably lower than pre-COVID numbers.[xiv] The appeal of populist movements like ITN, under the leadership of charismatic TV personality Slavi Trifonov, together with widespread discontent with Borisov’s 12-year tenure arguably contributed to the strong showing. Coalition negotiations being the flavour of the month across the EU, most analysts are predicting a stalemated result followed by fresh elections later in the year.[xv]
While still outside the EU, aspiring Member State Albania recently held elections for the unicameral Kuvendi (Assembly) on April 25, with exit polling indicating a return to majority governance for the incumbent Socialist Party.[xvi] Accused of election fixing after their sweeping changes to Albania’s constitution – replacing the country’s Jefferson method system with a more conventional party-list proportional representative arrangement – the Socialists faced a united opposition.[xvii] Galvanised under the slogan ‘Albania, a home that wins’, the opposition Democratic Party and socialist-offshoot Socialist Movement for Integration agreed to run separate party lists and enter into coalition if they pooled a majority.[xviii] Having not participated in 2019 elections widely condemned by international observers, this united opposition looks to have fallen only a few seats short of wresting control from incumbent Prime Minister Edi Rama.
Upcoming Elections: All to Play For
Cyprus will head to the polls in May to elect its Voulī́ tōn Antiprosṓpōn/Temsilciler Meclisi (House of Representatives), with another close race between the centre right Dimokratikós Sinagermós (‘DISY’) and Marxist-Leninist AKEL parties expected.[xix] Although elections are held every five years for all 80 seats in the House, the ongoing partition of the island means that none of the 24 reserved for Cyprus’ Turkish community have ever been filled. With apathy and frustration abounding in Cypriot politics, 2016’s trend towards low turnouts and splinter party successes is expected to continue, with yet another fragmentary coalition between President Nicos Anastasiades’ DISY and several minority parties likely.
Originally scheduled for March 2020 before the onset of COVID-19, France’s regional elections have once again been rescheduled for June 2021. Having been pushed further and further back by a succession of lockdowns, Prime Minister Jean Castex is determined to conduct the vote as long as health conditions permit.[xx] Although the correlation between France’s regional and national elections is not always consistent, the vote will nonetheless be read as an early indicator of President Emmanuel Macron’s position relative to Marine Le Pen’s populist Rassemblement national (formerly ‘Front national’) party in the lead-up to his 2022 re-election bid.[xxi]
Of all the European elections in 2021, none have received as much international attention as Germany’s upcoming federal election, its first of the post-Merkel era. Her decision not to stand for a record fifth term as Chancellor has sparked understandable panic among her coalition-leading CDU party, with succession planning still underway for who will lead them to September’s Bundestag (Federal Parliament) election.[xxii] After the resignation of Merkel-designate Annegret Krampf-Karrenbauer following the 2020 Thüringen elections,[xxiii] moderate Merkel loyalist Armin Laschet was elected CDU leader in January,[xxiv] with conservative standard-bearer Markus Söder only recently ceding the potential Chancellorship.[xxv] The vote also comes at a time of dynamic change in German party politics. The CDU’s habitual coalition partner, the SDP, have fallen away sharply in successive Landtag (State Parliament) elections,[xxvi] with the far-right AfD also achieving uneven results since their breakout 2017 federal campaign.[xxvii] Observers will be keenly watching results in Sachsen-Anhalt, with June’s vote in the former East German territory a reasonably reliable litmus test for September. Considering the massive consequences that shifted German leadership could have for the region and the globe, it stands as easily the most significant federal election in Germany’s post-reunification history.
Coinciding with the German vote on September 13 are elections in Norway, with ‘Iron’ Erna Solberg and her Høyre party seeking a third term. Despite the 2020 breakaway of the Progress Party consigning her coalition to minority government in the Storting (Great Assembly), historically stable Norwegian politics are expected to deliver another coalition government.[xxviii] Solberg’s campaign has emphasised a strong COVID-19 recovery, the continuation of Norway’s energy transition, and efforts to redress stagnant unemployment figures.[xxix]
The final EU election scheduled for 2021 – in Czechia – looks set to continue the continent’s trend towards coalition governance with another inconclusive result. Having already weathered a 2018 no-confidence motion, Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’ ANO 2011 party is now under siege from all sides.[xxx] Recent negotiations within both conservative and far-right blocs have resolved to exclude his party from any post-election government. Even the most optimistic opinion polling predicts huge swings away from ANO, with the Mayors and Independents movement and comically named Pirates Party the likely beneficiaries.[xxxi] After the Communist Party withdrew confidence and supply in the Poslanecká sněmovna (Chamber of Deputies), a no confidence vote in Babiš looks imminent, and the total collapse of ANO in October’s election almost certain.[xxxii] The political uncertainty compounds an already miserable year in Czechia, with the country having suffered more than any other in the EU from the effects of COVID-19.[xxxiii]
Despite not being ‘European’ in the strict sense, it is also worth noting the scheduled elections for the eighth Gosduma (Lower House) of the Russian Federation. Waves of protest have rocked cities across Russia, with the jailing of figurehead Alexei Navalny and widespread crackdowns only somewhat subduing opposition. Although there is hope that 2021 will mark a reckoning for Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, a repeat of the ‘strategic voting’ that decimated their margin in 2019’s Moscow local elections is not guaranteed.[xxxiv] Putin is likely to marshal the full force of ‘foreign agent’ laws, together with the clandestine levers of state, to secure a fifth consecutive United Russia majority in the Gosduma since 2003.[xxxv] With the prospect of military action in Ukraine looming, the outcome of the vote is unlikely to materially change rapidly deteriorating Russo-European relations.
What are the 2021 elections telling us?
Reviewing this year’s parliamentary results and coalition negotiations, it seems that uncertainty is the only certainty in contemporary European politics. Six of the ten votes have either ended, or are looking likely to end in, caretaker governments and coalition talks. COVID-19 cannot take all the blame for this. The proliferation of minor parties and the decline or instability of historically strong ones has disrupted the status quo, with few established political movements able to galvanise the mood for change around their causes. On the one hand, these new groupings might lead to a more effective representation of competing political positions, as in the German experience. On the other hand, this same diversity might result in political ‘hostage taking’ on core issues for smaller coalition parties, with either minority governments or forcibly early elections as a result. In either case, the future of European national politics is febrile, and looks set to continue defying both prediction and expectation.
[i] https://profitsbrewingnews.com/2021/01/exit-poll-incumbent-wins-portugals-presidential-election/
[ii] https://www.reuters.com/world/portugal-president-rebelo-de-sousa-wins-new-term-socially-distanced-ballot-2021-01-24/
[iii] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia/catalonia-postpones-vote-for-new-president-in-stand-off-with-madrid-idUSKBN1FJ141
[iv] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/#98097
[v] https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/far-right-vox-is-the-dark-horse-of-the-catalan-elections
[vi] https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/catalan-election-marked-by-covid-sees-record-low-turnout-of-53
[vii] https://dutchreview.com/news/politics/5-things-to-know-about-the-dutch-election-results-of-2019/
[viii] https://nltimes.nl/2021/04/22/rutte-cabinet-accused-withholding-tax-scandal-info-parliament-pm-denies-anything; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dutch-government-cabinet-mark-rutte-resign-child-welfare-scandal/
[ix] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/netherlands/
[x] https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/04/cabinet-benefit-scandal-minutes-show-ministers-were-irritated-by-critical-mps/
[xi] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/dutch-lawmakers-set-to-resume-stalled-coalition-talks-mark-rutte-dutch-netherlands-geert-wilders-christian-b1827496.html
[xii] https://sofiaglobe.com/2021/04/21/bulgaria-itn-db-refuse-gerb-invitations-for-talks-on-proposed-government/
[xiii] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/bulgaria/
[xiv] https://www.novinite.com/articles/208784/Election+Day+in+Bulgaria%3A+Voter+Turnout+Tad+Over+38+Percent+by+5+p.m.+-+Gallup
[xv] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/29/bulgaria-hasnt-been-able-form-government-what-happens-now/
[xvi] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/albanians-vote-new-government-with-graft-their-mind-2021-04-25/
[xvii] https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2020/10/31/newest-changes-to-election-rules-move-albania-further-away-from-political-consensus/
[xviii] https://balkaninsight.com/2021/03/01/albania-opposition-unites-to-challenge-edi-rama-for-april-25-elections/
[xix] https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/cyprus/
[xx] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-castex-idUSKBN2BO4MT
[xxi] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/could-marine-le-pen-finally-triumph-with-her-third-tilt-at-french-presidency
[xxii] https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/cdu-laschet-kanzlerkandidat-1.5269582
[xxiii] https://www.rnd.de/politik/nach-akk-rucktritt-wer-kommt-als-kanzlerkandidat-in-frage-EANPIEXX4RFW3BFRTDAXZ2JHFI.html https://www.politico.eu/article/the-fall-and-fall-of-german-social-democracy-german-regional-elections-spd-malu-dreyer-sigmar-gabriel/
[xxiv] https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/armin-laschet-zum-neuen-cdu-vorsitzenden-gewaehlt-17149208.html
[xxv] https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-04/markus-soeder-akzeptiert-armin-laschets-kanzlerkandidatur
[xxvi] https://www.politico.eu/article/the-fall-and-fall-of-german-social-democracy-german-regional-elections-spd-malu-dreyer-sigmar-gabriel/
[xxvii] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-far-right-afd-bids-win-back-voters-with-anti-lockdown-campaign-2021-04-11/
[xxviii] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/norway-left-minority-government-populists-quit-68403572; https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/norway/
[xxix] https://www.politico.eu/article/jonas-gahr-store-labor-erna-solberg-vote-for-me-and-pay-more-taxes-says-norways-labor-candidate/amp/
[xxx] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/17/andrej-babis-czech-government-to-resign-after-losing-confidence-vote
[xxxi] https://balkaninsight.com/2021/01/05/czechia-in-2021-health-wealth-and-nuclear-to-dominate-election/
[xxxii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-14/czech-leader-s-support-falls-before-ballot-as-covid-crisis-rages
[xxxiii] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/cz
[xxxiv] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/09/putin-party-losses-moscow-elections
[xxxv] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-putin-foreign-agents-kremlin/2021/04/02/17dedadc-8cdd-11eb-a33e-da28941cb9ac_story.html
